Too big to fail:
a roadmap for sustainable development of the Amazon¹

Virgilio Viana²

1. Introduction: the challenges

The Amazon is a key region for the future of our planet: it houses the world´s largest reservoir of biodiversity, surface freshwater and terrestrial carbon stocks. The Amazon also plays a very important role in the dynamics of global water cycle and Atlantic Ocean. Given current trends of anthropogenic pressures and the ecological limits of planet boundaries, the Amazon is a region of strategic global importance. It is too big to fail.

There is a lack of a vision for the future of the region by Amazon countries themselves. It should not be a surprise the fact that there is a lack of a clear vision for the future of the Amazon by regional organizations. Countries usually have general policy statements about the importance to protect natural ecosystems and improve livelihoods, but with very little coherence with actual public policy decisions.

The Amazon region has an area of almost 8 million square kilometers, distributed across 8 countries and one province. There is little exchange between the Amazon regions of various countries. The Amazon Cooperation Treaty Organization (ACTO) has a mandate to improve cooperation but is limited by a very small budget, staff and organization structure and so long project cycle. Formal regional cooperation dialogue is still disconnected to the region dynamics, communication and interaction means with local actors are under construction and were not incorporated into its institutional structure and official cooperation action do not incorporate in an appropriate manner the region priorities.

The biggest challenge of the Amazon is to change current business as usual (BAU) trajectories. The Amazon is largely perceived by central governments as a frontier to be occupied and developed through conventional economic development. Mining, oil and gas, agricultural land, timber and extraction of other natural resources are object of both legal and illegal business, with strong ties to policy making at federal, state and municipal levels. Insufficient advances were achieved in terms of the sustainability of those economic activities.

Reducing deforestation in the Amazon is a key challenge for the achievement of the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) at the country and global levels. This will also be an important challenge to meet the Paris Climate Agreement and the Aichi Biodiversity Targets.

Brazil has the largest deforestation rate in the region. Deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon started to grow back since 2013, after a period of relative decline, from 2004 (27 thousand square kilometers per year) to 2012 (5 thousand square kilometers per year).

Deforestation is a result of a complex sum of factors, which vary both in space and time. Therefore, it is necessary to take into account this complexity to understand the dynamics of deforestation. There are no simple, easy or definitive solutions.

Drivers of deforestation can be grouped into (i) economic factors (market structure, conditions and access to credit, incentives, Prize of commodities, international demand etc.), (ii) governance factors (budget and structure of environmental institutions, efficiency of command and control instruments, management efficacy of protected areas and indigenous lands); (iii) political factors (power of the lobby of the agricultural sector; changes in legislation at the federal, state and municipal levels), (iv) infrastructure development (road construction, hydroelectric dams etc) and development of extractive industries (mining, oil and gas) and (iv) structural factors (population growth and migration., poverty and inequality etc).

Reducing poverty in the Amazon is another key challenge for achieving the SDGs. The region houses some of the world’s poorest and most marginalized women and men, including hundreds of different indigenous peoples, with several not yet contacted by western society. Indigenous people suffer from conflicts with illegal gold miners, loggers and land grabbers. However, the population of the Amazon (34 million) is largely urban, most of which poorer than national averages.

Amazonian countries have set aside large parts of their territory as protected areas and territories of indigenous peoples (45,8%³). This a very significant progress. However, there are many challenges in moving from paper protection to good management of those territories.

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1 Prepared for the International Conference on Sustainable Development – Amazon Day, 2017.
2 General Director, Sustainable Amazon Foundation (FAS), Chair of SDSN-Amazonia and Coordinator of the Working Group on Deforestation for the Brazilian Forum on Climate Change (FBMC) and a visiting scholar at IIED.
3 Source: https://www.amazoniasocioambiental.org/wpcontent/uploads/2017/04/AMAZONIA2016_english_18maio.pdf. Access in set.13th, 2017.

2. A vision for Amazon 2030

Building a common vision for the future of the Amazon is an urgent and necessary step for Amazon countries. Ideally, this is an exercise that should be done at the local, national and regional levels. This could be an important achievement in the celebration of the 40th anniversary of the signature of the Amazon Cooperation Treaty in 2018.

This paper can be seen as an initial contribution towards building a common vision for the future of the Amazon. This paper is to be discussed in the II Conference for Sustainable Development of the Amazon, to be held simultaneously in seven (07) hubs in Amazonian countries as well as in other parts of the world via webinar. The idea is that the discussion and feedback gathered at the Conference will provide inputs to the revision of this paper so that it can be presented formally as a contribution of SDSN to ACTO in 2018.

The Amazon should show major improvements on all SDGs by 2030, supported by nationally defined policies that aim at eradicating extreme poverty, halting deforestation and degradation of natural ecosystems, bringing peace, social inclusion and drastically reducing all forms of human violence; while promoting economic development processes based on sustainable use of natural resources and improving wellbeing and living well for all its people.

3. The context

The Amazon is a huge area, similar to Europe, USA and China. The Amazon Basin has a total area of 7,86 million square kilometers, while the Amazon Biome has an area of 7.78 million square kilometers. Although similar in size, the Amazon Basin and Biome and are spread quite differently among Amazonian countries.

While Brazil has 71.5% of the Amazon Basin, it has only 64.3% of the Amazon Biome. The Amazon Basin represents 66% of the Brazilian territory and while the Amazon Biome represents 58.8% of the country area. By contrast, Suriname, French Guyana have practically no area in the Amazon Basin, while having 100% of their territory in the Amazon Biome.

Source: IBGE (2014)

4. Climate change scenarios

The Amazon region is severely threatened by climate change scenarios. These scenarios present an urgent need of adaptation programs.

5. A roadmap for action

On the basis of a clear vision for the future, and considering the climate change scenario, it is possible to design a roadmap for action. Considering that the biggest challenge of the Amazon is to change current business as usual (BAU) trajectories, such a roadmap needs to address the drivers of BAU.

5.1 Strengthen governance in the frontier

A key driver of BAU is the lack of governmental presence in the frontier. There is a lag between the arrival of early movers (illegal loggers, gold miners and land grabbers) and governmental institutions. This facilitates deforestation, degradation of natural ecosystems and conflicts with Indians and traditional populations. Land use degradation and unsustainable resource use occurs largely in the absence of the rule of law.

The strategy to deal with this common situation includes:

• Identify critical areas where illegal loggers, gold miners and land grabbers are most active. Deploy quickly the installation of physical structures in those areas, with adequate support in terms of airlift of personnel and well as appropriate logistics. Law enforcement should increase the cost of illegality
• Improve overall governance and management of law enforcement. Reduce bureaucracy and improve efficiency and efficacy of public policies. Governance reform should reduce the cost of legality for sustainable production activities
• Strengthen institutions such as federal and state public attorneys that have played an increasing role in countering unsustainable development pathways. The same institutional strengthening is needed for environmental and rural technical assistance governmental institutions so as to be less vulnerable to corporate pressures.

5.2 Increase funding mechanisms for sustainable development in the Amazon

Funding for sustainable development in the Amazon needs to be increased and should be larger than funding for BAU. There is a need of innovative mechanisms to incentivize forest protection, restoration and sustainable management. This has to be done in ways that contribute to eradication of poverty, reduction of inequalities and other sustainable development goals.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Increasing international funding through new mechanisms such as the Amazon Fund in Brazil, which could be replicated in other Amazon countries, possibly with the support of development banks such as BNDES, IDB, CAF and WB
• International cooperation should play an greater role in strengthening governmental institutions as well as civil society organizations in all Amazonian countries
• Increase domestic funding by shifting current funding of BAU pathways (e.g. expansion of the agricultural frontier) to economic alternatives coherent with SDGs.

5.3 Change the paradigm of financing for infrastructure

Financing for infrastructure (e.g. roads, hydroelectric dams) and extractive industries (e.g. mining, oil and gas) should go through a paradigm change. Instead of financing individual projects, finance should target landscape-level sustainable development processes. This should include a combination of public and private engagement to support sustainable development pathways.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Development banks and financial institutions should educate their top management and staff to design policies and evaluate projects in radically different This includes on the job training as well as recruitment policy that prioritizes staff and senior management with adequate education and experience on financing landscape-level, cross sectoral, integrated and innovative projects
• Policy reform to improve the efficiency, efficacy and equity of allocation of revenues from extractive industries and of compensation of social and environmental impacts. This includes innovative institutional design to reduce bureaucracy and corruption.

5.4 Reduce corruption and increase transparency

Corruption is a part of unsustainable development pathways as it increases inefficiency, inefficacy and inequality, in addition to draining public resources. There has been considerable progress in identifying corruption schemes involving corporations, politicians and public officials particularly in Brazil, but also in other Amazonian countries.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Continuous improvement of anti-corruption legislation, judicial processes and law enforcement
• Increase transparency of governmental institutions, NGOs, CSOs and business, with adoption of independent audits and rigorous reporting
• Address systemic, endemic and syndromic corruption, through changes in legislation to reduce impunity, reduction of bureaucracy and massive education campaigns to promote societal change in behavior towards small, medium and large scale corruption.

5.5 Improve corporate behavior

Corporations play an important role in promoting BAU development pathways and should be pressed to change behavior. There has been considerable progress on corporate transparency, but much more is needed. The soybean moratorium is a success story that needs to be strengthened and multiplied across other value chains.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Promotion of behavior change in corporations so that there is an overarching commitment for having deforestation free value chains in agricultural and forestry products. This can be measured, monitored and disclosed in a transparent way so that civil society organizations can work with corporations on environmental (e.g. deforestation) as well as social (e.g. slavery) indicators
• Requiring corporations to invest at least 1% of their gross revenues in doing good. This follows Pope Francis call for a different ethics of companies towards the poor. Corporate bonuses to executives should be redesigned so that payments are conditional on the level of financial investment of corporations on promoting SDGs in their region of influence.

5.6 Strengthen civil society organizations

Non-governmental organizations (NGOs) play a very important role in different areas, from advocacy to practical action to implement solutions for sustainable development in the Amazon. NGOs are essential to improve public policies, fight corruption and empower local communities to build their sustainable development pathways.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Improve domestic legislation by creating incentives and reducing bureaucracy to encourage domestic philanthropy both for the rich and super rich as well as for innovative crowd funding mechanism
• Support massive campaigns to encourage a culture of giving and philanthropy within and among Amazonian countries
• Encourage international cooperation, both governmental programs as well as private philanthropy, to prioritize strengthening non-governmental institutions in all Amazonian countries.

5.7 Education and communication

Not only basic education needs to be improved in the Amazon regions of all countries of the region. It is necessary to provide education opportunities for Amazonians that is relevant for sustainable management of their natural resources. This includes all levels, from elementary school to university graduate and post-graduate education. There is a need to promote massive formal and informal education on SDGs for all social groups within Amazon countries. It is essential for long term sustainability of the region that the population understand that boom and bust economies do not lead to wellbeing and buen vivir.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Reform the curricula of all education levels from elementary school to university graduate and post-graduate education, so as to reduce memorization of useless contents and increase materials that can be useful to improve livelihoods, entrepreneurship and innovation
• Promote on the job education for policy makers and leaders on the advantages, opportunities and practical alternatives to implement sustainable development pathways.

5.8 Ecosystem services and poverty

The Amazon is a powerhouse of ecosystem services as it plays a very important role in the global water cycle and balance of greenhouse gases. The Amazon is essential for regional rainfall regimes, which feed agricultural and cattle production, hydroelectric power generation and urban water supply in all Amazonian countries. The Amazon also plays a key as the world´s largest reservoir of biodiversity, surface freshwater and terrestrial carbon stocks. These ecosystem services need to have an economic value.

The strategy to face this challenge includes:

• Assess the value of ecosystem services provided by the Amazon and compare the costs of action to inaction to change BAU
• Design and implementation of mechanisms to give economic value to Amazon ecosystem services. This includes giving value to sequestration and storage of carbon in forest ecosystems as a way to increase the commitments beyond the Paris agreements
• Design and implement benefit sharing mechanisms so that the revenues from ecosystem services benefit specially the poor and indigenous peoples of the Amazon.

5.9 Promote community-based sustainable development pathways, specially in protected areas and indigenous lands

Protected areas and indigenous lands play a very important role in reducing pressures for deforestation and illegal logging as well as securing rights and reducing conflicts over land tenure. Protected areas and indigenous lands are generally poorly managed due to limited funding and institutional inefficiencies.

The strategy to deal with this challenge includes:

• Expand protected areas and indigenous territories as a key mechanism to reduce deforestation, illegal land grabbing, rural violence and predatory logging
• Improve financing and institutional arrangement so as to improve the quality of management so that these areas improve the livelihoods of indigenous peoples, eradicate extreme poverty and promote nature conservation more effectively.

5.10 Build political support

From the beginning of the design process it is important to acknowledge that this roadmap is not politically neutral and will certainly attract political opposition from those who benefit from BAU. This includes some actors related to mining, oil and gas, agricultural land, timber and extraction other natural resources are object of both legal and illegal business. It is important to note that some of these actors have strong ties to policy making at federal, state and municipal levels.

The strategy to deal with those interests that oppose sustainable development needs to be very clear and effective, as it is an essential ingredient to success. This strategy includes:

• Engaging other sectors of society in defending the protection of the forest and its peoples for the environmental services produced by natural ecosystems and their importance, even to those who live thousands of kilometers away. The role of the Amazon as a biological pump and a key component of the hydrological cycle and rainfall regime has strong appeal to agriculturalists and urban populations which depend on rain for their lives and jobs
• Supporting comprehensive and effective education on the importance of the Amazon for future This should target both public and private schools. Teachers should be supported through better education materials, preferably available free in the internet, such as videos, graphs etc
• Monitoring policies at federal, state and municipal levels to identify possible incoherencies of individual policy instruments (legislation, policies, programs, projects) at federal, state and municipal levels. This monitoring should feed civil society initiatives in their dialogue with on all levels of governments (executive, legislative and judiciary).

6. Conclusion

The Amazon is too big and important to fail. Amazon countries should work together to develop a common vision for the region. The SDGs provide an excellent opportunity and a challenge to all societies and countries of the region: what is that Amazon that we want in 2030?

On the basis of a common vision, it is essential to design a road map to get to that vision. This roadmap has to be based on a clear theory of change and underpinned by science. Such a roadmap has to be based on a broad societal common understanding and a social pact towards the Amazon.

This paper presents a draft proposal of both a vision and a roadmap for the Amazon that we want in 2030. In doing so it does not intend to provide an answer to an intractable challenge. Rather, this paper intends to encourage discussion and debate. If it helps fuel the debate and encourage convergence of Amazonian societies, it will serve its purpose.

This paper is going to be revised as part of a consultative process led by SDSN-Amazonia. Therefore, comments and suggestions are most welcome.

Créditos de imagem: Orlando Júnior